Bitcoin Could Hit $92K If Trump Wins 2024 Election, Says Analyst

Jeff Park, the head of alpha strategies at Bitwise, has made a bold prediction that Bitcoin could reach $92,000 if Donald Trump secures a victory in the upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election.

In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), Park detailed his analysis of Bitcoin's price movements in relation to Trump's odds on the decentralized betting platform Polymarket. He applied merger arbitrage-style probability calculations, suggesting a significant likelihood of a price surge post-election.

Park stated, “I project a Trump victory could push BTC to ~$92,000,” joining a growing number of analysts who believe that a Trump win could provide a substantial boost to the crypto market.

Crypto Community's Interest in the Election

The 2024 presidential election has captured unprecedented attention from the crypto community, largely due to Trump’s pro-crypto stance. He has pledged to transform the U.S. into the "crypto capital of the world" and intends to remove SEC Chair Gary Gensler on his first day in office, aiming to foster a more favorable regulatory environment for digital assets.

Bitcoin millionaire Erik Finman echoed Park's optimism, suggesting that Bitcoin could even rally to $100,000 under a Trump presidency, attributing potential market growth to Trump's policies.

Market Reactions and Predictions

Park's analysis included charting Bitcoin's price against Trump's betting odds from August 15 to October 20, highlighting significant fluctuations. He noted, “By applying merger arb-style probability math, I project a Trump victory could push BTC to ~$92,000.”

Despite these bullish forecasts, not all market observers are convinced that a Trump presidency would lead to sustained gains for Bitcoin. Billionaire investor Mark Cuban, who supports Kamala Harris, expressed skepticism, suggesting that while there may be an initial price surge, it could be short-lived due to inflationary pressures from Trump's proposed economic policies, including import tariffs.

Current polling data from 538 indicates that Harris leads Trump by a narrow margin of 1.8% nationally. However, betting markets like Polymarket show Trump with a notable lead of 18.8%, reflecting increased confidence among crypto enthusiasts in his electoral prospects.

Trump-Backed PAC's Crypto Donations

In related news, a political action committee (PAC) supporting Trump has raised approximately $7.5 million in cryptocurrency donations. The Trump 47 joint fundraising committee reported contributions in Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, and stablecoins such as Tether and USDC.

Trump was the first major presidential candidate to accept digital token donations, marking a significant shift in campaign financing. According to a report from Public Citizen, nearly half of the corporate contributions for the current election cycle stem from the crypto sector, with major players like Coinbase and Ripple being prominent contributors.

The total amount raised by the crypto industry this election season is roughly 13 times higher than what was collected during the previous presidential election cycle. Additionally, a survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University found that crypto owners are more likely to support Trump, with 50% backing him compared to 38% for Harris among crypto holders.